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There is value to be had backing the top 10 championship teams who are drawn against teams lower than them in the league structure and you will obtain better odds than backing premiership sides in similar circumstances.

During the 2003/04 season, Millwall were drawn at home three times and didnt meet another top 30 side until they faced Sunderland in the semi final. En-route to this match, they won three out of four games, beating Walsall @ 1.91 (h), Telford @ 1.60 (a) and Burnley @ 1.79 (h) before drawing at home to Tranmere in the quarter final, despite being odds on at 1.50. However, they made amends in the replay, winning at Prenton Park at odds of 2.32.

Backing Millwall to win each match before they faced Sunderland would have netted a profit of 26.20 for 10 level stakes, a 52% return on turnover.

Third Round
Millwall @ 1.91 vs Walsall. result: 2-1
forest vs WBA @ 2.30. result: 1-0
Preston vs Reading @ 3.48. result: 3-3
Sunderland @ 1.42 vs Hartlepool. result: 1-0
Cardiff vs Sheff Utd @ 2.61. result: 0-1
Ipswich @ 1.56 vs Derby. result: 3-0

Third Round Replay
Reading @ 2.21 vs Preston. result: 1-2

Fourth Round
forest vs Sheff Utd @ 2.40. result: 0-3
Telford vs Millwall @ 1.61. result: 0-2

Fifth Round
Millwall @ 1.79 vs Burnley. result: 1-0

Quarter final
Millwall @ 1.56 vs Tranmere. result: 0-0

Quarter final Replay
Tranmere vs Millwall @ 2.32. result: 1-2

Using this strategy to back all top 10 championship sides against lower opposition produced a profit of 36.20 on level stakes of 10 across 12 matches.

There are five third round matches that qualify for this strategy, three of which sees top 10 sides face championship opposition.

Sheff Utd @ 1.44 vs Colchester
Stoke @ 1.30 vs Tamworth
Wolves @ 1.72 vs Plymouth
Derby vs Burnley @ 3.00
Preston @ 1.57 vs Crewe

posted by 55208  # 6:21 AM